Connecticut State Center Wiki: Extent And Growth Of Homeschooling In Connecticut And The United States
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Extent and Growth of Homeschooling In Connecticut And The United States
The Impact of Homeschooling In Connecticut and the United States
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 | The Successful Homeschool Family Handbook by Dr. Raymond and Dorothy Moore |
The number of home schooled children age 6 to 17 estimated from these data sources, at face value, shows a growth from 360,000 in 1994 to 790,000 in 1999. Unfortunately, the point estimates from these data cannot be used directly to make such inferences. The 1994 CPS estimate of 360,000 is not much more than half the size of the 1996 NHES estimate of 640,000. This difference is statistically significant, but is too large to be explained by growth in the home-school population. Hemke et al. (2000), noted that the gap is implausibly large, but were unable to pinpoint an explanation. A likely reason for the discrepancy is the difference in question wording between CPS and NHES. In the CPS, the form of the home schooling question depended on the previous answer to the question on school enrollment. If a household reported children were attending school, they were not asked directly about home schooling, but had to choose it from a list. That this results in a lower response is evident from the extremely low rate of home schooling observed in the subset of CPS respondents who responded affirmatively to the enrollment question. In the CPS, only 190,000 children were reported as in school, but also home schooled. In the 1996 NHES, 450,000 children were reported this way. By contrast, people who initially indicated non-enrollment faced similar yes/no questions on home schooling in both surveys. They were much closer in number -- 170,000 home schoolers in CPS and 190,000 in the 1996 NHES.
The 1999 NHES data seem also to show growth in home schooling. However, the growth is not quite statistically significant from 1996, given the sample size (the p-value is between .05 and .10). Since the two NHES surveys are nearly identical in content and methodology, the trend based on these two data points provide the best estimate of growth, but the range is wide. A 95 percent confidence interval provides a range from 3 percent annual decline to 15 percent annual growth.
At the first level of analysis, therefore, we can't say a lot about the growth of the home schooling population. We can, however, refute some of the grander claims that have been made by advocates. The number of home schooled children was well under 1 million in 1999, and the growth rate from 1996 to 1999 was unlikely to have exceeded 15 percent per year.
More evidence on growth in home schooling
One way to get additional evidence on trends in home schooling is to examine trends in reports of school non-enrollment. For children in the prime school-enrollment ages 7-9 and 10-13, published estimates show non-enrollment remained consistently at or below 1 percent from the mid 1950s to the early 1990s. From 1995 to 1999, however, non-enrollment exceeded 1 percent 4 out of 5 years (Jamieson et al. 2001). An increase in the non-enrolled population is not the same as an increase in home schooling, but there is overlap. In the 7 to 14 age range, just under one-half of non-enrolled students were home schooled, according to tabulations from the 1994 CPS, and there is a correlation of around 0.5 between home-schooling and non-enrollment across states. A regression analysis of non-enrollment across years, using CPS data for 1989 to 1999 shows a significant upward trend (data not shown -- available from author on request). This confirms that the observed increase in recent years is not attributable to sampling error.A group that is especially likely to be home schooled consists of two-adult families with one not working (as will be shown below). In this group, 60 percent of non-enrolled children are home schooled. The regression of non-enrollment on years shows an equally large and significant coefficient for this group as it does for all school-aged children.
In sum, evidence on non-enrollment reinforces the direct evidence available from the two NHES surveys: there seems to be an upward trend in home schooling. Other evidence might also be interpreted as supporting this conclusion, including demographic characteristics and geographic location. These are explored next.
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Generally, natural disasters are conceptualized as uncontrollable (non-routine), systemic events in which societies, regions, and communities are disrupted and damaged economically, socially, physically, and psychologically.
Source: Louisiana State Center
